Fairfax prices are not moving in one direction
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That sounds like a clear trend. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes across six Fairfax ZIP codes for the three months ending August 31, 2026, and the picture is much more mixed.
Some parts of Fairfax are up. Others are down. The difference between the best and worst ZIP codes is nearly 18 percentage points. If you set a price, make an offer, or judge your leverage using the wrong number, you are starting from the wrong place.
Median sale price by ZIP code
Price change from a year ago tells a very different story
The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 22033 (Fairfax) up 5.7% year over year. ZIP 22039 (Fairfax Station) is up 2.5%. ZIP 22032 is up 2.1%. ZIP 22015 (Burke) is nearly flat at up 0.2%.
Then the picture shifts. ZIP 22030 is down 8.5% from a year ago. ZIP 22031 is down 12.1%. Those two ZIPs together saw 237 homes sell in just three months. That is a lot of transactions happening at lower prices than last year.
Supply is rising in the ZIPs where prices fell
More homes for sale usually means more competition among sellers. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes for sale in 22031 up 22.7% from a year ago. In 22033, inventory rose 30.8%. In 22030, it rose 6.9%.
The opposite is true where prices held or rose. In 22039 (Fairfax Station), homes for sale fell 31.8% from a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put months of supply there at just 0.7 months. In 22015 (Burke), inventory fell 5.9% and months of supply sits at 0.9 months.
Homes are still selling, and many are going above list
Across all six ZIP codes together, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 688 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 1.9% from the same three months of 2025. Buyers are still active.
In 22015 (Burke), the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 53.4% of homes sold above list price. In 22039 (Fairfax Station), 45.5% sold above list, and homes averaged 101.8% of list price. Even in 22031, where the median price fell 12.1%, 41.6% of homes still sold above list. That is up 10.2 points from a year ago.
| 22015 Burke | 22039 Fairfax Station | 22030 Fairfax | 22031 Fairfax | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median days on market | 26 days | 34 days | 29 days | 30 days |
| Sold above list price | 53.4% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| Under contract within 2 weeks | 64.5% | 62.2% | 57.3% | 50.6% |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 101% | 101.8% | 100.6% | 100.1% |
What the national picture adds
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2026, reaching 3.99 million units. National inventory rose to 1.60 million homes. More supply nationally is putting some pressure on prices.
Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. Realtor.com also found that 20.8% of listings nationally took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That context helps explain why some Fairfax ZIP codes are seeing softer prices even as others hold firm.
- The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S.
- price growth at 2.6% for the year ending July 2026. But in Fairfax, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 22033 up 5.7% and 22031 down 12.1% in the three months ending August 31, 2026. The national number does not tell you what your home is worth.
- Your ZIP code does, and sometimes your street does.
One street can read differently from the ZIP code around it. A condo and a single-family home on the same block can be in different markets. If you are thinking about buying or selling in Fairfax and want to know where your specific address sits in this data, feel free to reach out. Call, text, or email anytime.
Your next step
(703) 774-7448Text me your Fairfax address and I will send back where your home sits against what actually sold near you in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for ZIPs 22030, 22031, 22032, 22033, 22039 and 22015, the three months ending August 31, 2026, compared with the same months of 2025. Real Estate Data Aggregator last updated them on Oct 7, 2026.
- National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales, read Oct 25, 2026
- Federal Housing Finance Agency: FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year | FHFA, Sep 29, 2026
- Redfin: U.S. Home Prices Ticked Up 0.25% in September, Oct 20, 2026
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends: Price Cuts Hit 4-Year Highs as Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Sep 30, 2026
- Realtor.com: September 2026 Rental Report: Median Asking Rent Declines at the Slowest Pace in 3 Years, Oct 15, 2026