Published November 1, 2026 in Market Update

One part of Herndon was much tighter than the other

By Elizabeth Sachero-Perez

Real estate, Herndon

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings had price cuts in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Herndon did not follow one clean pattern. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes across both ZIP codes here, and the two sides read very differently.

The split: 20170 versus 20171

ZIP 20170 was the tighter side. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 41.7% of homes there sold above list price in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That share rose 11.4 points from the same months a year before. Fewer homes came to market: new listings fell 24.8% year over year.

ZIP 20171 had more room to breathe. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 28% of homes selling above list price there, a much smaller share. New listings rose 32.3% from a year before, giving buyers more to choose from. Prices dipped a little: the median sale price fell 1.3% year over year to $750,000.

What drove the difference

Supply tells much of the story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 68 homes for sale in 20170, down 6.8% from a year before. In 20171, there were 106 homes for sale, up 16.5%. More supply in 20171 gave buyers options and softened the pressure to go above list.

Speed was similar, but momentum was not

Both ZIP codes had homes sitting on the market about the same length of time. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median at 34 days in 20170 and 35 days in 20171. That one-day gap is not the real story.

The momentum underneath was moving in opposite directions. In 20170, the share of homes going under contract within two weeks rose 3 points year over year, to 47.4%. In 20171, that same share fell 12.3 points, to 43.7%. Buyers in 20171 had a little more time to think.

Sale-to-list ratio: both close to 100%, but the details matter

The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the average sale-to-list ratio at 100.2% in 20170 and 99.9% in 20171. On the surface those look nearly the same. But in 20170, that ratio rose 0.4 points from a year before. In 20171, it rose only 0.1 points. The direction matters for pricing strategy.

A ratio above 100% means the average home sold for more than it was listed for. In 20170, sellers who priced well were rewarded. In 20171, pricing at list was closer to the ceiling for most homes.

The wider picture: rates and national inventory

Mortgage rates are part of the backdrop. Realtor.com reported that rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026. Higher rates and rising prices together put pressure on buyers everywhere, including Herndon.

Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales reached 3.99 million units in September 2026, up 1.5% from the month before. Inventory rose to 1.60 million homes nationally. Herndon's own inventory picture, as the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows, was more uneven than the national trend.

What this means if you are buying or selling in Herndon

If you are selling in 20170, the data from the three months ending August 31, 2026 supports pricing sharply. Supply was low and competition was real. Nearly half of homes went under contract within two weeks.

If you are selling in 20171, you had more competition. New listings were up sharply and prices slipped a little. Preparation and presentation matter more when buyers have options.

If you are buying in 20170, be ready to move. More than 4 in 10 homes sold above list price there. In 20171, the pace was a little slower and the share selling above list was lower, though still meaningful at 28%.